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Abdulmajid, S A D (1967) Resource forecasting models for private housing projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Adams, C D (1995) Procurement of microtunnelling projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Adul-Hamid, R (1996) Construction duration prediction using neural network methodology, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Coram, W R (1997) The privatisaton of the property services agency, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Eldosoky, A I (1987) Dealing with uncertainty in construction projects with particular reference to Egypt, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Fenn, F P (1999) An aetiology of construction disputes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Holden, S L (2021) Land, materials, and construction site: Decommodification through alternative construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Inyang, E D (1983) Some aspects of risk analysis for decision making in engineering projects management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).
Luo, J (1998) The transitional construction industry and sino-foreign construction joint ventures in the p.R. Of China, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).
Luo, J and Gale, A (1998) The transitional construction industry and sino-foreign construction joint ventures in the p. R. Of China, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Merna, T (2004) Assessing methods to analyse portfolios of projects and their risks procured by project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Mohamed Sultan, A A B (2019) Decision tools for recycling with a focus on fibre reinforced composites, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Ng, S-t T (1996) Case-based reasoning decision support for contractor prequalification, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).
Nosair, I A R (1987) The relevance of computerised modelling techniques to construction management problems and training in Egypt, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).
Nour, H A (2003) An information approach for enhancing the health and safety file, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Parvar, J (2003) Neural networks decision support system (decision to bid), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).
Peacock, W S (1990) Site investigation procedures and risk analysis, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Samo, S R (1999) Energy conservation in UK housing and the effect of building regulations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).
Sansone, R (2020) Latent matters: Megaprojects and political imaginaries in post-revolution Tunis, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Shakeri, E (2002) An investigation of privately promoted infrastructure (ppi) strategy in developing countries: Public-private partnership (ppp) approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Sigonda, G G G (2000) The impact of infrastructural projects on the environment in Tanzania: The case of mindu dam, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Suraji, A (2001) Development and validation of a theory of construction accident causation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Tipple, C (1993) An analysis of the development of the construction industry since the 18th century, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Wearne, S H (1969) Organization of large engineering design departments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
Yeo, K T (1982) A systems approach to cost management of large scale offshore oil projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: complexity; uncertainty; contingency; cost estimating; cost management; integration; project cost; cost modelling; multiple regression; probability; quantification; regression analysis; Monte Carlo simulation
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://www.proquest.com/docview/2691027000
- Abstract:
The main objectives of this thesis are to provide a systems synthesis of the various facets of project cost estimation and management and to suggest Improvements to the existing methods and philosophy with special references to offshore oil development projects. In seeking improved methods for cost estimation and control emphasis Is given to systems and cost modelling approaches.Large scale offshore oil projects are viewed as large scale systems which are characterised by structural complexity and environmental uncertainty. The problems of project organisational complexity can be reduced by applying the systems orientated technique of work breakdown structure (WBS) and work packaging. The work packaging approach allows the Implementation of the desired Integration of project cost, time, and resources (CTR).The CTR Integration can be best achieved through a computerised modelling system which provides a valuable management tool for rapid cost evaluation and sensitivity analysis. Complementary to the evaluation model, the development of macro cost estimating models and formulating of estimating algorithms using multiple regression analysis are demonstrated with historical data.For risk quantification, two useful techniques are discussed namely a PERT type estimating method and Monte Carlo simulation. Both techniques are capable of generating the necessary probability distribution of cost outcomes, which in turn forms a basis for contingency calculation.The PERT-type technique Is quasi-probabilistic in nature and It Is generally preferred for Its relative simplicity and practicality. It encourages range estimation based on historical data dispersion. And the management risk attitude and estimating confidence can also be expressed.The separation of the relatively non-controllable environmental variables from the controllable resources variables prompts the requirement of a two-tiered contingency management system. The derivation of the second tier contingency called the management reserves is proposed. Further works are also recommended especially referring to the need of using modelling approach for marginal oil and gas prospect evaluation and corporate planning.